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I am a consultant and analyst with eight years of military law enforcement experience, six years of analytical experience covering Latin America, and over seven years of analytical experience covering Mexican TCOs and border violence issues. This blog is designed to inform readers about current border violence issues and provide analysis on those issues, as well as detailed focus on specific border topics. By applying my knowledge and experience through this blog, I hope to separate the wheat from the chaff...that is, dispel rumors propagated by sensationalist media reporting, explain in layman's terms what is going on with Mexican TCOs, and most importantly, WHY violence is happening along the US-Mexico border.

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With over a dozen years of combined experience in military law enforcement, force protection analysis, and writing a variety of professional products for the US Air Force, state government in California, and the general public, Ms. Longmire has the expertise to create a superior product for you or your agency to further your understanding of Mexico’s drug war. Longmire Consulting is dedicated to being on the cusp of the latest developments in Mexico in order to bring you the best possible analysis of threats posed by the drug violence south of the border.

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May 05, 2012

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Taking out El Chapo might end of being a case of being careful of what you wish for. It seems El Chapo is more traditional in the sense that he would be more willing to return to the old order of not hurting "civilians" and stick to the business of making money while using the population with as little harm as possible. The Zetas would not care about familial ties and more willing to crap where they eat. Having El Chapo win and return to a more ordered criminal society is the best Mexico can hope for. El Chapo would be a more benevolent slave master than the Zeta's. Until Mexicans realize that it is THEIR duty to defend themselves and choose to pursue a just society they have no hope.

I for one am happy that Miss Nepolitano is at the helm. No telling what kind of "spillover" we would have if it were not for her.

It sounds to me like the last 6 months or so have not been good for El Chapo. First $250 million, then another $15 million were seized by Colombian authorities from suspected Sinaloa money-laundering operations. Meanwhile, operatives from Los Zetas have (I hear) been captured near Culiacan, in El Chapo's backyard.

After five years of Los Zetas catching most of the government heat, both the authorities and Los Zetas seem to be tightening the noose around El Chapo's neck. I even heard (apparently false) rumors a few weeks ago that El Chapo may have already been captured or killed.

But now we have a string of unusually high-profile attacks in a Zeta stronghold bearing El Chapo's signature. My theory is that Chapo wants the government heat focused on his enemies in Nuevo Laredo, forcing Los Zetas to defend their home turf and distracting them from Chapo's land in Sinaloa.

@Miguel:

I believe that most of the Mexican government's intel (and successes) came from the cartels providing information on each other. A battle of attrition such as this could only be won by the strongest cartels.

Sure enough, we see only two cartels left standing, Zetas and Sinaloa. These two cartels will only have each other to battle. I think it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

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