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I am a consultant and analyst with eight years of military law enforcement experience, six years of analytical experience covering Latin America, and over seven years of analytical experience covering Mexican TCOs and border violence issues. This blog is designed to inform readers about current border violence issues and provide analysis on those issues, as well as detailed focus on specific border topics. By applying my knowledge and experience through this blog, I hope to separate the wheat from the chaff...that is, dispel rumors propagated by sensationalist media reporting, explain in layman's terms what is going on with Mexican TCOs, and most importantly, WHY violence is happening along the US-Mexico border.

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With over a dozen years of combined experience in military law enforcement, force protection analysis, and writing a variety of professional products for the US Air Force, state government in California, and the general public, Ms. Longmire has the expertise to create a superior product for you or your agency to further your understanding of Mexico’s drug war. Longmire Consulting is dedicated to being on the cusp of the latest developments in Mexico in order to bring you the best possible analysis of threats posed by the drug violence south of the border.

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December 17, 2011

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Excellent annalist. Mexican politics is not on many people's minds with all that's happening in our own political scene it just doesn't rate very high on any one's to do list.

This can go a long way in explaining Mexican politics and I will use it, but I struggle in explaining why we should pay attention to Mexican politics and how it impacts the U.S. A few suggestions would be welcome.

P.S. It was great to meet you in Austin and would be even better if I had not accidentally erased the film of you I took. Don't ask me how. OK OK I never claimed to be the brightest.

"seeing as the TCOs have little to gain from an agreement, and much to concede."

An agreement would end the draining war amongst themselves. But, I'm not sure exactly what they would concede? Please clarify!

Belton - Well, the way I see it, TCOs like Los Zetas and the Sinaloa Federation have much more control than other smaller TCOs, and would have to concede some territorial and trafficking rights to other TCOs under a government-sponsored agreement. Also, there's no way the government would stand for allowing Los Zetas to continue targeting innocent people for kidnapping and extortion, and that's become one of their greatest sources of income; I don't think Los Zetas would concede that. Because the TCOs derive much of their power from control over the local and state police, I don't see how an agreement with the federal government - which has little say at that level - could so dramatically alter that balance of power. There are just too many moving parts and too much money changing hands. Plus, many in the TCOs don't mind killing each other; it's a display of power. To say they want an agreement might be akin to admitting the government is actually challenging. their operations

Completely agree that TCOs on the whole will lose in negotiations but what are your thoughts on the Mexican government anointing individual or select cartels over others for special dispensation (routes, intelligence, or cooperation)? In this way, Nieto would attempt to roll the clock back to the days of a few cartels and kingpins. Violence would no doubt spike but could subside if he was able to resolve a few key territories on the trade routes and mitigate the street gangs/tier 3 cartels by essentially drafting them into the govt. approved cartel. Is Calderon already pursuing this strategy against the Zetas in Nuevo Leon?

A lot has been said in Mexico that Sinaloa Cartel has an agreement with the PAN and the Zetas with the PRI. PAN has tried to do the same thing PRI did before, but the Zetas (the new- commers)fought their way into the party.

When PRI was in government, everytime a new president took office, the kingpins in charge were arrested and new ones were put in place. The corrupt Government had total control.

Did Calderon simply tried to do the same?

Chapo's (Sinaloa Cartel)turn ended when Zedillo took office (last PRI's president) and went to jail. Chapo "escaped" when Fox (first PAN president)took office. That was another problem. Chapo still had the contacts and resources and "being in office" for a second term made him too strong.

One comment about the article: Pena Nieto (PRI) was governor of Mexico State, not Mexico City. Marcelo Ebrad (PRD) is in charge in Mexico City. PRD's candidate, Lopez Obrador, was in charge previously in Mexico City.

Hey, Merry Christmas!

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