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I am a consultant and analyst with eight years of military law enforcement experience, six years of analytical experience covering Latin America, and over seven years of analytical experience covering Mexican TCOs and border violence issues. This blog is designed to inform readers about current border violence issues and provide analysis on those issues, as well as detailed focus on specific border topics. By applying my knowledge and experience through this blog, I hope to separate the wheat from the chaff...that is, dispel rumors propagated by sensationalist media reporting, explain in layman's terms what is going on with Mexican TCOs, and most importantly, WHY violence is happening along the US-Mexico border.

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October 11, 2011

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I had been waiting all day for your analysis of this story. You didn't let me down. Thanks for the work you put into these.

The Iranians aren't a signatory party to NAFTA. So where do they get the idea that THEY can outsource cheap labor to Mexicans? Pathetic.

Somebody needs to explain to the Iranians how this kind of thing works--either they need to find an American who will do this and pay him a fair wage, or better yet, they should do it themselves and then they've got no one to blame if it's not done right.

But going to Mexico and immediately finding two US gov't agents to do the job? How unprofessional. I bet that Arbabsiar and Shakuri didn't even bother to learn Spanish. I bet they was real happy to find two guys who spoke good English. I bet they didn't even ask to see these guys cartel ID cards. I bet they thought that $1.5m was a ****load of money for these two Mexicans and there was no way they could resist. I bet they charged the Iranian gov't $75m for the job. I bet Arbabisar and Shakuri thought they were very clever for outsourcing this dirty deed. They DID sent the US gov't $100k and paid the bills of those who arrested them. As a US taxpayer, I say thank you to the Iranian government for the $100k.

To be fair, it is kind of hard to outsource this kind of work. A great example of an outsourced coup d'etat is described in detail in "The Seychelles Affair" by Mike Hoare. It is fast paced reading and very informative.

I strongly encourage either party in an outsourced hit or coup to read this book. Think of all the trouble you could save yourself if you spend $15 and read a book.

Why didn't the Iranians just use its Hezbollah presence in US and Mexico to pull this off? Even if the Zeta's were used it would be pretty obvious who the originating party is. Sounds like this was insitgated by a lone wolf/cell who wanted the informant to believe this was coming from Iran perhaps to get some credibility. Some pieces of this just don't fit.

I just don't buy this report by the US. It's full of holes. The story doesn't add up. It's like the US wanted a stone to go after Iran, and Los Zetas. Like hey who is public enemy #1 and #2. Let's make up a bogus fairy tale to attack both of them so we can have two more wars on two continents.

The story is bogus. Period. It's a fairy tale. No way Iran does this deal. And no way Los Zetas does this deal.

Even the Gulf Cartel's leadership doesn't need money this bad.

Although what's humorous is. One certain cartel would benefit from all this chaos.... If war happened in Iran and Northern Mexico Poppy prices would soar out of control both in Iran an Mexico.

Just saying.

"Why didn't the Iranians just use its Hezbollah presence in US and Mexico to pull this off?"

uhh. ... maybe because they don't have a Hezbollah presence in the US and Mexico? Perhaps this event is the best proof that this presence doesn't exist?

And if you read the transcript, that 'lone wolf/cell' pissed away $100k which isn't exactly chump change for a 'lone wolf' . . . . .

"No way Iran does this deal. And no way Los Zetas does this deal."

Uhh. . .If you notice, NO ONE did this deal.

"Even the Gulf Cartel's leadership doesn't need money this bad."

That was the whole point of Sylvia's article.

So what to say that the Iranians government isn't filled with incompetent fools too? In fact, it sounds to me like they are filled with some pretty stupid people who are way out of their league on this side of the world.

AND if we wanted to start another war we would have let the Saudi Ambassador be assassinated. What better way to do that? Remember THAT'S how WWI got started.

""Why didn't the Iranians just use its Hezbollah presence in US and Mexico to pull this off?"

uhh. ... maybe because they don't have a Hezbollah presence in the US and Mexico? Perhaps this event is the best proof that this presence doesn't exist?"

http://www.hudson-ny.org/2269/hezbollah-mexico
"the 440 megabytes AZDPS documents displayed a bulletin mentioning the presence of Hezbollah militants operating in smuggling corridors on the U.S. border with Mexico.

The document, from the Tucson Police Department, is dated September 20, 2010.
"

http://www.10news.com/news/27780427/detail.html
"We are looking at 15 or 20 years that Hezbollah has been setting up shop in Mexico," the agent told 10News.

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-07-14/politics/30060540_1_islamic-militants-hezbollah-cartels
http://info.publicintelligence.net/AZ-Hezbollah.pdf
"
The memo, leaked by the hacker group LulzSec as part of its Arizona Department of Public Safety hack, warns that Hezbollah has established operations — and a large arms stockpile — in Mexico.

As evidence, it points to the 2010 Tijuana arrest of Hezbollah militant Jameel Nasr, who was allegedly tasked with establishing a Hezbollah network in Mexico and South America."

This is just the first few results from google. I am sure you can find further evidence. It is almost like you are trying to run a mis-information campaign for the Obama admin.

@anon_superhero

Thank you for the links--it invites intelligent conversation instead of screaming loud opinions. I also like how you question authority. If more Americans had done this when our government told us that there were WMD in Iraq then we never would have invaded. But, we can't turn back the clock.

So let's analyze these news reports and see if they seem logical. Here are some observations:

1) "We are looking at 15 or 20 years that Hezbollah has been setting up shop in Mexico," the agent told 10News." --Hezbollah was formed after the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. . . . . and this man expects us to believe that Hezbollah is already exporting the revolution before meeting their prime objective? I find this agent's statement to be far-fetched. I also note that he provided no facts to back up this statement. The best proof of the factual fallacy of the agents' statement if one of your links:

2) "As evidence, it points to the 2010 Tijuana arrest of Hezbollah militant Jameel Nasr, who was allegedly tasked with establishing a Hezbollah network in Mexico and South America."

So, if this is true, then it means that as of the date of his arrest, July 2010 there was no Hezbollah network in Mexico--not 15 to 20 years of influence. The first link also states that he was under surveillance before the arrest in Mexico. And in addition, it is reasonable to assume that the Mexicans' intelligence agencies are functional.

Nasr was tasked with establishing a network and he failed. Was Nasr a high-ranking individual? How long will Hezbollah wait before attempting again? Who will they send? What tactics will he employ to set up his network? What results will the new guy have? How long will he need to set up a network? Although the articles do a good job at instilling fear, they do not address any of these points.

3) The first link mentions over 200,000 Syrian and Lebanese immigrants in Mexico. But, they neglect to mention relevant details; how long have the immigrants lived in Mexico? A) If they immigrated pre-1982 why should anyone assume they would share the goals of Hezbollah? B) Syria and Lebanon are a patchwork of religions-Christian (Marionite Catholic, Syrian Orthodox, Syrian Catholic) Muslim (Shia, Sunni) and Druze. (Source: CIA World Factbook) and the link makes no mention of the breakdown of the religious beliefs of these 200,000 immigrants. Perhaps mostly Christians emigrated to Mexico? Perhaps most Sunni Muslims?

4) Hezbollah's main beef is with Israel, not the USA.

Based on these facts, I find it hard to believe that Hezbollah has set up a network in Mexico. Therefore, when I read that some Iranian idiot tries to hire a cartel bloke to bomb a Saudi it seems very plausible. This fact alone backs up the theory that Hezbollah does not have an established network in Mexico.

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