My Photo
I am a consultant and analyst with eight years of military law enforcement experience, six years of analytical experience covering Latin America, and over seven years of analytical experience covering Mexican TCOs and border violence issues. This blog is designed to inform readers about current border violence issues and provide analysis on those issues, as well as detailed focus on specific border topics. By applying my knowledge and experience through this blog, I hope to separate the wheat from the chaff...that is, dispel rumors propagated by sensationalist media reporting, explain in layman's terms what is going on with Mexican TCOs, and most importantly, WHY violence is happening along the US-Mexico border.

Longmire_square

With over a dozen years of combined experience in military law enforcement, force protection analysis, and writing a variety of professional products for the US Air Force, state government in California, and the general public, Ms. Longmire has the expertise to create a superior product for you or your agency to further your understanding of Mexico’s drug war. Longmire Consulting is dedicated to being on the cusp of the latest developments in Mexico in order to bring you the best possible analysis of threats posed by the drug violence south of the border.

Follow DrugWarAnalyst on Twitter

« "Reduced overtime stymies Border Patrol." | Main | "Shots apparently fired from Juárez pelt City Hall, enter office." »

June 28, 2010

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

I don't see how there can be any honest politicians left in Mexico - at least none that are willing to speak out and reform the system. Cevallos was kidnapped last month. Torres is dead today. The chief of traffic police in Monterrey was kidnapped from his own home at 3 am ... just a couple of days ago.

It just doesn't stop. And the message is simple - absolutely no-one is safe.

Perhaps you should be asking a tougher question. How long before Calderon caves in to this pressure ... if he hasn't already? What's the easiest way for him to stop most of this bad news about Mexico??
ANSWER: make a deal with the devil.

P - That's exactly what the PRI did for so long. I think some people believe that drug trafficking became big in Mexico just a few years ago. Truth is, it became huge in the 1980s, but was always there well before that. The violence wasn't an issue because the president and other government officials in the PRI kingdom let it happen, mostly because they benefitted from it in some way. Taking that route again is always an option, technically, but after everything Mexico has been though, it's hard to say what people would tolerate. I have no doubt that there are many Mexicans who long for a return to times past when there were agreements between cartels and peace on the streets - even if it meant that their government had sold their souls. Yet, in diplomatic circles, after everything Calderon and the US government have done to crack down on the DTOs - and the international attention the situation has garnered - would Mexico be able to get away with going back to the old ways in order to establish some peace?

People benefited for letting cartels do what they want by not getting their lives taken or businesses ruined. Then things seemed to get crazy after Calderon poses a lock down on drugs and two drug cartels started arguing over power.

I can see why certain people are taken out, not just politicians but a recent musician this past weekend was killed because it is a scare tactic, and everything your analysis says seems true.

But corruption has obviously run deep in Mexico's history. How do you stop it peacefully? You can't. Even before the violence broke out, yes it was peaceful but at what cost? You pay the cartels to keep them from robbing your business? You can even pay a police officer to let you go from jail. That was peace?

So again, it won't just be politicians being killed but other people that have some influence like "El Shaka" who was targeted over the weekend.

EVERYBODY in Mexico is involved in drugs or knows people who are. They are killing each other over the money. Why not? No one gets caught. No murders are solved because the police and the Army are fighting for the drug money. Calderon too. The violence escalates because State authority is nonexistent. Mexico IS a failed state. What you see in the border region will soon be happening in the capital. No one is safe, all is chaos. No one wants to fix it because then the money would stop. You wanted a democratic Mexico - well - you got it.

S - "everything Calderon has done"? Are you kidding? Do you think he is not in on it? It's sad because 2010 will break all records for violence and it's the anniversary of the Revolution and the Independence.

This assassination is just the latest incident in the fight against 500 years of weak government, corruption and injustice that Mexico's slowly growing middle class(now about 30% of the population) has led by ending PRI rule 10 years ago and through the election of Calderon. He is the first president in Mexico's history to fight the 500 year disease head-on. It is the attitudes and actions of this middle class that will determine Mexico's future. I don't think they have lost faith in the system just yet.

And what about our efforts as Americans? We have already spent 1 trillion dollars in Iraq and Afghanistan and have only pledged 1.3 billion dollars for the fight against the drug cartels. Only one billion dollars, more or less, will go to Mexico and not all of it is yet funded. That's a cheap sum for a situation affecting our national security right next door.

Lets go back to US history for a moment. Chicago in the late 1920's and early 1930's. The era of the Prohibition and Al Capone. At that time Capone became so powerful as a crime boss that he practically ran the whole city - he had many city officials and judges on his payrolls. A similar situation exists in Mexico today with the drug cartels. So what did the US Gov't do to overcome this problem in Chicago? They created a special group of law enforcement personnel who were untainted by Capone and completely beyond his reach. That group was call The Untouchables.

That is essentially what Calderon must do now - if he wants to keep any form of credibility. Mexico needs its own version of The Untouchables. A group of law enforcement agents who are entirely beyond the reach of the cartels. True - it would be daunting and extremely dangerous job for the agents involved. Are there any really good men & women left in Mexico who would volunteer for such a mission? Who knows? But if Calderon doesn't do something quickly, his whole political system will fail.

The alternative is what someone here has already suggested - that perhaps Calderon is already in the pocket of the Sinaloa Cartel. If that's true, then the situation is already lost.

I recently read that the zetas are knocking off PRI politicians in states like Tamps. Because the PRI has been in bed with the established cartels for so long. z feels that other DTOs like the CDG have an advantage, at least on the local level, because of their entrenched relationship. In other words, get rid of the PRI and level the playing field.

The Zetas are responsible for this assasination and the reasons are quite simple.
In the last few months zetas have lost hundreds of low ranking foot soldiers, and this event will bring more heat from the Federal Government and more Federal Troops. The Gulf Cartel will go into hiding untill this heat blows over, and this will allow the Zetas to replace all their losses. They are recruiting more and more young, poor, uneducated rural mexicans and promising a place in the DTO and rushing them through suedo-military training. This is essentialy a counter-insurgency movement using tactics learned at the College of The Americas by the head of the Zetas - H. Lazcano Lazcano, who was trained in the United States under the CIA, for Mexican Special Forces Unit (GAFES).
The only involvement that the PRI candidate Dr. Rodolfo Torre had with a DTO, was a unsolicitated nod of approval by the Gulf Cartel in his home state. This sealed his doom at the hands of GC´s desperate rivals.

The comments to this entry are closed.